查看星期六, 21 8月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Aug 21 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Aug 2021	077	007
22 Aug 2021	079	007
23 Aug 2021	081	007

公告

One numbered active region is visible on the solar disk: NOAA 2858 (beta magnetic field configuration). There is a region that rotated over the east limb (unnumbered still) that produced 3 C-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest being a C3.0 flare peaking at 15:57 UT on 20 August. There is another region rotating into view in the southern hemisphere. More C-class flares can be expected, M-class flares are possible.

The AR rotating into view from the southern hemisphere produced a wide eastward CME first seen by LASCO C2 at 06:12 UT on 20 August. given the position of the source region behind the limb, this CME is not expected to affect the Earth. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The southern extension of the north polar coronal hole has crossed central meridian today, a related high speed stream may arrive to the Earth in about 3 days.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, while the 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. Over the next 24 hours they are expected to remain at those levels.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed has been around 350 km/s. The total magnetic field strength varied between 2 and 8 nT, with positive polarity (directed away from the Sun). Similar slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 0-2 and K Dourbes 0-3) over the past 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：015，基於16個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Aug 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	015
10厘米太陽通量	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	013 - 基於27個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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