查看星期六, 25 9月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Sep 25 1239 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
25 Sep 2021	088	003
26 Sep 2021	088	011
27 Sep 2021	090	025

公告

Named regions present on the visible solar disk are Catania 45/NOAA 2871, Catania 44/NOAA 2872, Catania 43/NOAA 2873, Catania 48/NOAA 2875 and NOAA 2876. Catania 45/NOAA 2871 has been the source of a C.14-class flare. Two new regions should emerge on the visible disk, as seen in Stereo-A. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected.

A CME associated with the M1.8 class flare on Sep 23 15:23UT can be expected about Sep 27. A CME associated with the filament eruption on Sep 25 17:12UT is been currently investigated.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. Over the next 24 hours, it is expected to increase towards the threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. Over the next 24 hours they are expected to remain at those levels, increasing towards moderate levels.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed continued to increase, reaching 575 km/s. The total magnetic field strength had values between 1 and 7 nT, while its Bz component varied between -5 and 5nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decrease before possibly compound effects from the high sped stream of the coronal hole crossing central meridian on Sep 24, together with the two expected CMEs from Sep 23 can be detected near Earth from late Sep 26.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels, (NOAA Kp 0-2 and K Dourbes 0-3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：044，基於20個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 24 Sep 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	071
10厘米太陽通量	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	056 - 基於26個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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