查看星期四, 7 10月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Oct 07 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
07 Oct 2021	086	005
08 Oct 2021	086	005
09 Oct 2021	086	007

公告

Two sunspot groups are visible on the solar surface seen from Earth (Catania sunspots group 54, NOAA AR-2880 and Catania sunspots group 58, NOAA AR-2882). The Catania sunspot group 58 (NOAA AR-2882) grew and become more complex over the past 24 hours. Its magnetic complexity changed from Alpha to Beta-Gamma, and a C5.5-class flare was observed today on Oct 7 peaking at 02.46 UTC. The new unipolar sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 59) was short-lived and has fully decayed. More C-class flare are expected coming from Catania sunspot group 58 (NOAA AR-2882) with small chance of M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu and at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth remained under the slow solar wind speed regime (ranging between 289 km/s and 340 km/) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind parameters (as observed by ACE and DSCOVR) showed mostly an ambient background solar wind flow except for the interplanetary magnetic field. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was enhanced and ranged between 6.4 nT and 12.0 nT with its Bz components fluctuating between -9.9 nT and 9.9 nT. This enhancement is probably due the passage of a transient solar wind structure flowing at the same speed as the background wind. Mostly nominal solar wind regime is expected to persist in the next 24 hours.

In response to the enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and its southward directed Bz component reaching -9.9 nT, the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active during the first part of the 24-hour period (values of K-Dourbes index were between 2 and 4, and NOAA-Kp index between 1 and 3). Then from Oct 6 at 22:00 UTC, the geomagnetic conditions returned quiet and is expected to remain quiet as long as the Earth remains in slow solar wind speed regime.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：016，基於16個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 06 Oct 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	025 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀