查看星期二, 12 10月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Oct 12 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
12 Oct 2021	089	037
13 Oct 2021	089	029
14 Oct 2021	089	024

公告

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, with a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA 2882.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

DSCOVR registered a shock in the solar wind around 01:45 UT on October 12. This probably marks the arrival of the ICME associated with the October 9 halo CME. The solar wind speed jumped from about 365 to 490 km/s with current values around 445 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field jumped from about 5.5 to 14.5 nT with current values around 11 nT. Bz has been below -5 nT most of the time since 20h UT on October 11, with a minimum of -16 nT and current values of -10 nT. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 12. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through October 12 and 13.

Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 1 and 6) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 12 and 13, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6) on October 12. A gradual return to quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) is expected on October 14.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：016，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 11 Oct 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	041
10厘米太陽通量	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
估計地磁Ap指數	022
估計國際太陽黑子數	028 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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