查看星期五, 15 10月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Oct 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Oct 2021	082	011
16 Oct 2021	082	013
17 Oct 2021	082	007

公告

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels for a brief period in the past 24 hours, and can reach moderate levels again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 330 and 385 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 1 and 9 nT, and IMF orientation changed from towards the Sun to away from the Sun around 0h UT on October 15. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may arrive at Earth in the second half of October 15 or on October 16, leading to enhanced solar wind levels.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. In the second half of October 15 and on October 16, active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected on October 17.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：011，基於21個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Oct 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	018 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀