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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Nov 21 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Nov 2021	081	019
22 Nov 2021	081	017
23 Nov 2021	081	015

公告

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 10%.

A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA imagery around 13h UT on November 20, between about 5W55N and 15W20N. An associated CME towards the NW was first registered by LASCO C2 at 19:18 UT. Based on the available data, the associated ICME will probably not reach Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and may reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Under the influence of a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole, the solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR increased gradually from about 520 km/s to a maximum of about 695 km/s, with current values around 660 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) was oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude increased from about 2 nT to a maximum of 10 nT, with current values around 5 nT. There were no extended intervals with Bz below -5 nT. Continued enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 4-5) are possible on November 21, 22 and the first half of November 23, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K-BEL = 6). A gradual return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K-BEL < 4) is expected from the second half of November 23 onwards.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：021，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Nov 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	021 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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