查看星期日, 30 1月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Jan 30 1245 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
30 Jan 2022	120	007
31 Jan 2022	120	007
01 Feb 2022	120	007

公告

Solar activity was active over the last 24 hours. An M1.1 flare occurred in Catania sunspot group 17 (AR NOAA 2936), with a peak time on January 29 at 23:32 UTC. This flare is associated with a large coronal dimming observed in SDO/AIA images and detected by the Solar Demon Tool. Several other C-class flares were also recorded, the latest being a C6.7-class on January 30 with a peak time at 07:19 UTC. Solar activity is expected remain active with C-class flares and possibly also M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

An Earth directed coronal mass ejection was observed on January 30 around 00:00 UTC by the coronagraph imagery SOHO/LASCO-C2, SOHO/LASCO-C3 and STEREO/COR2-A. It was also detected by SIDC/CACTus Tool. The projected speed in the plan of the sky was estimated to be around 425 km/s and 549 km/s. The coronal mass ejection is associated to the M1.1-class flare that took place in Catania sunspot group 17 (AR NOAA 2936) and a large coronal dimming. Due to the geo-effective location of the active region (Longitude -13 degrees and Latitude 22 degrees), the coronal mass ejection is estimated to be directed toward Earth and may potentially impact the solar wind conditions in the vicinity of Earth. Using all the available coronograph images the true speed was estimated to be around 1200 km/s and the arrival time is expected to be on February 02 mid day.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remained at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters measured in the Earth environment (by DSCOVR) remained enhanced due to the effects of the solar high-speed stream connected to the Coronal Hole that crossed on January 26 (also positive magnetic polarity). The solar wind speed reached 559 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field values were ranging between 5 nT and 7 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -5.7 nT and 5.9 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced for the flowing day.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K_Bel 1-3) and at planetary levels reached active condition (NOAA-Kp 4) with short periods of active conditions in response to the solar wind enhancement. Mainly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：093，基於19個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 29 Jan 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	014
估計地磁Ap指數	016
估計國際太陽黑子數	069 - 基於22個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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