查看星期六, 5 2月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Feb 05 1253 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
05 Feb 2022	130	011
06 Feb 2022	133	019
07 Feb 2022	135	011

公告

There are five active region present on the disk, with NOAA region 2941 (Mag. configuration: beta) newly appeared on NE. Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region (AR) 2936 (Catania sunspot group 17, Mag. configuration: beta) has been most active, producing a C5.8 flare, peaking on Feb 04 15:51UT. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a chance of M-class flares.

A Coronal Mass Ejection associated to the C5.8 flare is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was crossed the 1000 pfu alert threshold on Feb 04 13:05UT. It is expected to be above threshold in the next 24 hours, as a response to ongoing ICME influence. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next period.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions were under the slowly waning influence of an ICME. The total magnetic field values dropped from 11 to 4 nT. Its southward component Bz had values between -10 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed decreased, down to 450 km/s. However, from Feb 05 07:00UT it started increasing again, as the expected high speed streams appear to start having an impact. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector sector (directed towards the Sun), with slight variations associated with the impact of the CME. Over the next 24 hours we expect the solar wind conditions to remain enhanced due to high speed streams from the negative polarity coronal holes crossing central meridian on Feb 2,3 and 4.

At the beginning of the past 24 hour period, we had minor storm conditions (Kp 5), dropping to quiet conditions by Feb 05 06:00UT. Active conditions could be expected as the effect of the compounded effects of the ICME and the high speed streams.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：098，基於18個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 04 Feb 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	127
10厘米太陽通量	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	033
估計地磁Ap指數	036
估計國際太陽黑子數	103 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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