查看星期一, 21 3月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Mar 21 1236 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Mar 2022	092	007
22 Mar 2022	093	007
23 Mar 2022	093	007

公告

Solar activity was mostly at low levels over the last 24 hours. Several active regions are on the solar disc visible from Earth. NOAA-AR 2965 is turning around the west limb ; NOAA-AR 2972 and 2973, have both a beta magnetic field configuration but no significant activity has been recorded ; and a returning region (NOAA-AR 2957) is visible on the East limb and has already produced several B-class flares and one C1.2-class flare. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. Yesterday, on March 20 at 07:45 UTC a C4.6-class flare was recorded. Associated to this flare, a slow speed (projected speed of about 202 km/s) and feinted CME was observed in the coronagraph imagery along with a solar dimming in SDO/AIA images. Due to the location of the region and the estimated initiation parameters of the eruption, the CME is expected to arrive to Earth on March 24. However only very weak impact or no impact is exacted into the solar wind parameters, since the CME is very slow and feinted. Today, on March 21 around 06:12 UTC, a halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. The CME is initiated from a region over the East-limb and is not Earth directed. However an ongoing mild proton event (currently < 10 pfu) seen in GOES data may be associated to this CME.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux shows a slight increase today around 06:45 UTC. This increase is associated to the backward halo CME. The proton flux may further increase within the next few hours before returning to nominal values. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to be close to the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters in Earth environment (as recorded by DSCOVR) shows an ambient background and slow solar wind speed regime. The the solar wind speed fluctuated around 300 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field decreased from about 10 nT to values between 3.6 nT and 7.1 nT, and its southward Bz-component is now fluctuating between -2.4 nT and 3.6 nT. The relatively elevated values of the interplanetary magnetic field in the beginning of the 24-hour period reflected the passage of the expected ICME from 20 March flowing at similar speed then the background solar wind speed.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled levels (K-BEL and NOAA- Kp recorded values of 0-3). The short period of unsettled condition was a response to the expected CME arrival March 20. Geomagnetic conditions are also expected to remain mostly quiet.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：049，基於21個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Mar 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	044 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

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