查看星期四, 14 4月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Apr 14 1237 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Apr 2022	099	019
15 Apr 2022	099	010
16 Apr 2022	099	006

公告

The solar flaring activity is very low, with only occasional low B-class flares and no C-class flares reported. We expect that such a flaring conditions will persist in the coming hours. The isolated C-class flares are still possible in particularly from the sunspot group (not yet numbered) that is rotating to the visible side of the Sun from behind of the East solar limb. The full halo CME with projected plane-of-the-sky speed of about 1000 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software) was observed on April 13. The CME was first time observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 filed of view at 13:25 UT and in the STEREO A/COR2 field of view at 13:23 UT. There are no clear on disc signatures of the CME observed on the visible side of the Sun, as seen from Earth or from the STEREO A. Considering the position of the STEREO A and the orientation of the CME we can conclude that this CME was a back side event and will therefore not arrive to Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and we expect that it will remain so in the coming hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was, during last 24 hours, fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold. We do not expect significant increase above the 1000 pfu threshold in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal to moderate level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours. The in situ observation show arrival of the magnetic structure straight after the passage of the CME that departed from the Sun on April 09. The presently available observations indicate that is the early arrival of the halo CME first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 filed of view at about 05:48 UT on April 11. The CME had source region on the center of the solar disc and it was clearly Earth directed. Its early arrival in comparison to the forecasted arrival time is due to underestimated CME velocity (often case for the halo CMEs).

Elongated, positive polarity coronal hole (possibly connected to the equatorial positive polarity coronal hole that reached central meridian late on April 12) reached central meridian at about 12 UT today. The solar wind associated with this coronal hole is expected at Earth in the evening of April 17 or early morning of April 18. Presently the solar wind speed is about 460 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 10 nT.

The arrival of the ICME induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Local station at Dourbes reports short interval of K=5 and NOAA reported interval of Kp=5. We expect active to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：037，基於25個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Apr 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	050
10厘米太陽通量	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	032 - 基於28個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

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