查看星期四, 29 9月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Sep 29 1237 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
29 Sep 2022	135	007
30 Sep 2022	138	023
01 Oct 2022	140	043

公告

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are currently 4 numbered regions on disk. Most of the C-class flares were associated with Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 3107). Catania group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) also produced low level C-class flares. Catania group 50 (NOAA AR 3111) Catania group 42 (NOAA AR 3105) were mostly quiet. The largest flare observed was a C5.6 flare, from beyond the east limb, peaking on September 29 at 05:30 UT. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

A faint CME to the south-east seen in LASCO C2 from 05:30 UT September 28, probably associated with the filament eruption observed from the north-east quadrant in SDO/304 at 04:48 UT September 28 could have a glancing blow at Earth on December 01. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced but remained well below the minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of the high speed stream. The solar wind speed showed a general decreasing trend, with values between 450 and 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude oscillated around 5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease on September 29. From late on September 30 the solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced in response to the expected high speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on September 27.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2, local K-Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic condition are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, with active to moderate storm conditions possible from midday on September 30 through to October 2, due to the aforementioned high speed stream.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：072，基於20個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 28 Sep 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	086
10厘米太陽通量	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	084 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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