查看星期六, 8 10月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Oct 08 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
08 Oct 2022	160	009
09 Oct 2022	160	010
10 Oct 2022	160	007

公告

Solar flaring activity was at quiet levels with C-class flares and one isolated M1.0-class flare with a peak time at 14:44 UTC on October 8 Catania sunspots group 56 (NOAA AR 3116). The solar flaring activity is expected to remain quiet to moderated levels with C-class flare and possible isolated M-class flare.

A coronal mass ejection (CMEs) in the North-West direction was detected in the available coronagraph imagery SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was the result of a filament located in the North-West quadrant of the Sun that started to erupt on October 07 at 07:00 UTC. The projected speed was estimated by SIDC/Cactus tool to be 284 km/s. No Earth impact is expected from this slow coronal mass ejection.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over long periods of time and is expected to be above the threshold for long periods in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate to high levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated due to the influence of the high-speed streams coming from coronal holes (positive polarity). The solar wind speed values were between 480 km/s and 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5.2 nT and 7.8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7.2 nT and 5.9 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be enhanced due to the combination of the possible arrival of glancing blow of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection from the filament eruption observed on October 05, and the high-speed streams from the corona hole (positive magnetic polarity).

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 1-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4) due to the prolonged periods of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic being negative. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with possible periods of active conditions for the next days due to the expected solar wind enhancements.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：147，基於16個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 07 Oct 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	196
10厘米太陽通量	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	015
估計地磁Ap指數	016
估計國際太陽黑子數	156 - 基於29個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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