查看星期三, 16 11月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Nov 16 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
16 Nov 2022	137	013
17 Nov 2022	136	013
18 Nov 2022	135	007

公告

Solar flaring activity has been low, with only low level C flares being recorded in the past 24 hours. NOAA active region 3140 was again most active in flaring but also some flaring from behind the north-eastern limb was observed. NOAA active region 3140 seems to have simplified while approaching the limb and NOAA active region 3141 now seems in decay. NOAA active region 3145 experienced some development in the leading area while NOAA active region 3146 lost most of its leading spots. Two new regions have rotated onto the disc in south-east but seem quiet. Flaring at C level is expected, with only a limited chance for an isolated M flare.

No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is about to start transiting the central meridian. It is expected to influence solar wind conditions from November 19 onwards.

Solar wind has returned to slow solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased to around 330km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 5nT with a variable north-south component. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field showed connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Some enhancements in solar wind speed may occur over the next 48 hours related to some faint and small coronal hole features. A more significant enhancement is expected by November 19 due to the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole on the southern hemisphere which is about to transit central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp between 0-2 and local K Dourbes 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods possible related to the expected solar wind perturbations.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：076，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 15 Nov 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	003
估計地磁Ap指數	002
估計國際太陽黑子數	077 - 基於16個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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