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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Nov 20 1234 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
20 Nov 2022	117	019
21 Nov 2022	117	022
22 Nov 2022	117	007

公告

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels with an isolated M1.6 flare from NOAA region 3150 peaking at 12:56UTC. Only 2 more C flares were recorded both also from region 3150. Spreading of the footpoints was observed in this region which overall simplified. For the other three regions in the eastern hemisphere: NOAA active region 3149 in the north showed further emergence of spots and grew while NOAA active region 3147 was relatively stable and NOAA active region 3148 in the south is loosing its leading spots. Flaring at C level is expected.

Coronagraph images show only small and faint CME signatures towards the West related to the C8.3 flare reported yesterday, and a broader but clearly northward directed signature related to the subsequent filament eruption also reported yesterday. Both are judged to be too far of the Sun- Earth line to influence Earth. The M1.6 flare was associated with radio bursts and a dimming and a clear CME signature is seen in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 13:25UTC. The CME is directed to the northwest and has an angular extent of around 90 degrees and is not expected to influence Earth. In EUV images a filament eruption is recorded from the Southern hemisphere at high latitude around 1:00UTC with subsequent CME signatures in coronagraph images. It too is too far south to influence Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has now completed its transit of the central meridian and is expected to start influencing current solar wind conditions.

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded. Solar wind speed decreased again to close to 300 km/s, while also the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field returned to a value of 5nT. Since 8:00UTC we see however a new slow but steady increase of both speed and magnetic field to currently 340km/s and 8nT. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field indicated connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun) and its north-south component was mostly northward. Solar wind speed is expect to increase again to above 500 km/s later today with the onset of the expected high speed stream conditions related to the coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (NOAA Kp between 0+-1+ and local K Dourbes 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active with a chance for minor storm levels being reached in the next 48 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：080，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 19 Nov 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	066 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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