查看星期三, 30 11月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Nov 30 1248 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
30 Nov 2022	109	016
01 Dec 2022	110	029
02 Dec 2022	111	019

公告

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. NOAA AR 3151 produced the largest flare, a long duration C4.2 flare peaking at 13:58 UT. NOAA AR 3151 has now rotated over the west solar limb. NOAA AR 3152 was stable. Two new regions are expected to rotate onto the disk in the next days, increasing the probability of c-class flares. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance of C-class flares.

A filament, stretching from the north east quadrant to the south east quadrant, began to erupt from 14:38 UT on November 29 as seen in SDO/AIA 304. The associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) is predominantly directed to the south east. Analysis is ongoing to determine if an Earth impact is expected. No other Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain elevated. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at moderate to high levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 580 and 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5 and 10 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced, due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream. A further enhancement in the solar wind speed is expected from Dec 01 associated with large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which began to transit the central meridian on November 28.

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to active levels, with an isolated interval where globally NOAA Kp reached minor geomagnetic storm levels. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active on Nov 30. From December 01, minor storm conditions are likely in response to the next expected high-speed stream arrival.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：031，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 29 Nov 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	024
估計地磁Ap指數	028
估計國際太陽黑子數	030 - 基於11個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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