查看星期五, 2 12月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Dec 02 1234 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Dec 2022	130	018
03 Dec 2022	136	011
04 Dec 2022	145	011

公告

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was an impulsive C8.1 flare recorded on the northeast limb, near the newly numbered Catania sunspot group 11 (NOAA AR 3156) that is just rotating onto the disk. Also near the east limb, Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153), is the largest region on disk has produced multiple C-class flares. A new sunspot group emerged in the northern hemisphere, Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 3155), but has not produced significant flaring activity. Catania sunspot group 6 (NOAA AR 3152) decayed slightly. Catania sunspot group 7 (NOAA AR 3154) in the southern hemisphere has been quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

The two wide consecutive Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) reported yesterday are not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue to exceed this threshold over the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at moderate to high levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 and 660 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude gradually decreased, with values between 2 and 7 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours, as the influence of the high-speed stream begins to wane.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA KP 3-4 and Local K Dourbes 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active conditions over the next day as the solar wind speed gradually decreases.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：082，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Dec 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	040
10厘米太陽通量	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	028
估計地磁Ap指數	032
估計國際太陽黑子數	051 - 基於23個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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