查看星期六, 21 1月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Jan 21 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Jan 2023	219	015
22 Jan 2023	217	016
23 Jan 2023	217	006

公告

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The X-ray flux background remained at the C level. The largest flare was a C7.3 flare, peaking at 22:47 UTC on Jan 20, associated with active region NOAA 3192 (beta-gamma class). NOAA ARs 3190 and 3192 remained the most complex (beta-gamma class) regions and produced several C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The remaining active regions have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares

A filament eruption in the southwestern quadrant was observed on Jan 20 around 12:30UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 12:24UTC onwards is directed to the southwest. Another filament eruption from NOAA AR 3190 occurred shortly after it at around 13:47UTC, related to a C5.3 class flare. The associated faint CME, that appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 14:48UTC onwards, is directed to the south. The bulk of this eruptions is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a chance for a glancing blow on Jan 23 around 18:00UTC. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions were slightly disturbed. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 390 km/s to 530 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 4 nT to 9 nT. The Bz ranged between -8 to 7 nT. A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole has started to transit the central meridian on Jan 21 and may influence solar wind conditions starting from Jan 24. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to influence of HSS from positive polarity coronal hole.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3 NOAA-Kp=2-3) with a short period of active condition (NOAA-Kp=4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active periods during next hours due to influence of the HSS.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：197，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Jan 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	268
10厘米太陽通量	218
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	007
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	216 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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