查看星期四, 9 2月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Feb 09 1236 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
09 Feb 2023	205	013
10 Feb 2023	205	006
11 Feb 2023	200	005

公告

The level of the solar flaring activity has stayed moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 17 flares have been reported, of which 7 were M-class flares and 10 were C-class flares. All of the M-class flaring activity originated from NOAA AR3213 and NOAA AR3217. NOAA AR 3213 has now fully crossed the central meridian and has evolved into a beta-gamma-delta photospheric magnetic field configuration. NOAA AR3217 just rotated onto the visible side of the solar disk. The strongest flare reported was a M3.1 flare originating from NOAA AR3213 with peak time 03:10UT on February 9. We expect solar flaring activity to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and with a small possibility of X-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters of the last 24 hours still reflect conditions of the high speed stream that arrived on the 6th of February. The solar wind speed has been gradually declining from about 590 km/s to 520 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 5nT. We expect to see a continuation of the decline in the solar wind speed as we are returning towards slow solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled (K-Bel=2-4 NOAA-Kp=2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：155，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 08 Feb 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	192
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	018
估計地磁Ap指數	020
估計國際太陽黑子數	140 - 基於23個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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