查看星期六, 15 4月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Apr 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Apr 2023	174	011
16 Apr 2023	174	006
17 Apr 2023	174	005

公告

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours has been at moderate levels with a total of 21 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares observed, while also showing a rising background level in the recorded X-ray activity. Most of the flaring originated from Catania sunspot group number 59 (NOAA AR 3282), from which also the 2 M-class flares originated. The strongest flare recorded was a M1.5 flare with peak time at 23:27 UT on April 14. A total of 8 numbered active regions are presently observed on the visible side of the solar disk, all with a simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha or beta), except for Catania sunspot group number 57 (NOAA AR 3280) which has a beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. For the next 24 hours, we expect multiple C-class flares and possibly isolated M-class flares. The flaring activity originating from the Catania sunspot group number 57 (NOAA AR 3280), which is currently well-connected to the Earth, could be associated with a particle event.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. Due to the moderate flaring activity it is possible that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are any high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to stay below the threshold over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed was in the slow solar wind regime with values between 320 km/s and 380km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength was about 6-8 nT with a varying North-South component of the magnetic field. For the next 24 hours, we expect Earth to be under the influence of the solar wind originating from the two positive polarity coronal holes which crossed the central meridian over the past days. Only minor geomagnetic impact of the upcoming fast wind is expected.

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled and we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：182，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Apr 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	175
10厘米太陽通量	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	163 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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