查看星期一, 10 7月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Jul 10 1257 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
10 Jul 2023	175	006
11 Jul 2023	175	006
12 Jul 2023	175	015

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring and an M2.4-flare, start time 03:29 UTC, peak time 03:55 UTC and end time 04:22 UTC on July 10th, from active region NOAA 3366 (beta). The region previously produced multiple C-class flares, including an impulsive C6.8-flare, peak time 23:20 UTC on July 9th and continuous to exhibit low levels of flaring activity. There are twelve active regions on the visible solar disc, including an unnumbered active region (beta) near S15E70. The largest active region, NOAA 3363 (alpha), produced only an isolated C0class flaring over the UTC night and has decreased now its magnetic complexity. The second largest and most complex region on the visible disc, NOAA 3361 (beta-gamma-delta), has increased its magnetic complexity, but produced only an isolated impulsive C9.4-flare with peak time 01:58 UTC on July 10th. Occasional C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3359 (beta), which exhibited some decay, by the newly numbered NOAA AR 3368 (beta), as well as by NOAA AR 3367 (beta), which exhibited some growth. The remaining active regions have been relatively simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with probable M-class flaring and some chances for isolated X-class flaring from NOAA AR 3361.

日冕物質拋射

A fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 00:12 UTC on May 22nd. The CME has estimated projected velocity around 1000 km/s and is related to the M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3366. Type II radio emission was detected at 03:41 UTC during the flaring activity. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, preliminary analysis suggests that a glancing blow could be expected at Earth in the UTC afternoon of July 12th. Further analysis is ongoing to better determine the CME direction of propagation and expected impacts at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

Coronal holes: A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. An associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth as early as July 13th.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered nominal slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was below 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -3.7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 48 hours and could register possible enhancements after in case of a glancing blow ICME arrival.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail until July 12th. Quiet to active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms could be expected late UTC on July 12th should a potential glancing blow from the partial halo CME on July 10th reach the Earth.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed some minor enhancements in response to the M-class flaring and related fast coronal mass ejection. Despite these enhancements, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was approaching the 1000 pfu threshold, but remained below it, while the greater than 2 MeV GOES 18 electron flux has briefly exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold around 21 UTC on July 9th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be remain close to 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours and could cross in again the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next day and could increase to moderate levels after.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：193，基於24個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 09 Jul 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	181 - 基於23個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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