查看星期四, 3 8月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Aug 03 1234 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
03 Aug 2023	173	018
04 Aug 2023	173	015
05 Aug 2023	172	017

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with three M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.7 flare which peaked at 14:52 UTC on Aug 02. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced NOAA AR 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR 3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Only few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed but all of them were slow and mostly narrow and no Earth-directed components were identified.

日冕洞

An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

太陽風

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, velocity ranging from 320 km/s to 390 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 10 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). We expect to see active to minor storm conditions if the high speed stream from the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01, hits the Earth.

質子通量水平

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at moderate to normal level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：156，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 02 Aug 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	207
10厘米太陽通量	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	017
估計地磁Ap指數	015
估計國際太陽黑子數	164 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀