查看星期六, 2 9月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Sep 02 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Sep 2023	138	023
03 Sep 2023	136	026
04 Sep 2023	136	013

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M3.4 flare, peaking at 07:12 on Sept 02, associated with NOAA AR 3413, which is now approaching the west limb. Low flaring activity was also produced by unspotted region near S21E45. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

日冕物質拋射

A fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at around 04:17 UTC on Sept 01st. The CME was driven by a long-duration M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3413 (beta), peak time - 03:51 UTC. The CME is directed to the north-west and is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment on September 03. Another CME, directed towards the south-east, was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 21:36 UTC on Sept 01, likely related to the C7.4 flare from S21E45. Additionally, a CME, directed towards the south-west, was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 07:24 UTC on Sept 02, possibly driven by a long- durational M3.4 flare from NOAA AR 3413. Full analysis is ongoing, and more details will be provided later. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere transited the central meridian today.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions reflected the ongoing influence of the positive polarity CH high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed increased from 400 to 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 11 to 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -9 nT and 6 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for the next days due to the ongoing HSS influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 02 – Sept 03 due to the predicted arrival of CMEs.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to active (NOAA-Kp=1-4) with a single minor storm registered globally (NOAA-Kp=5) during the interval 06-09 UTC on Sept 2nd. Locally only quiet to active (K-Bel=1-4) conditions were observed over Belgium. Predominantly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated minor or moderate storm periods due to influence of the HSS and a predicted arrival of CMEs.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux displayed a gradually decreasing trend over the last 24 hours and is now below the 10pfu threshold since around 20:10 UTC Sept 01. It is expected that the proton flux will remaine elevated but below the threshold for the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：090，基於20個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Sep 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	016
估計地磁Ap指數	016
估計國際太陽黑子數	089 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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