查看星期一, 4 12月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Dec 04 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
04 Dec 2023	141	010
05 Dec 2023	138	019
06 Dec 2023	135	018

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low but frequently during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3511 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 79) produced the brightest flare, a C8 today at 01:26 UTC and has undergone through a very significant flux emergence during the last 24 hours. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours and if NOAA AR 3511 continues to increase, M-class flare(s) are likely to register.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from today 07:00 UTC. This is most likely a front-sided event and there is a good chance to become geo- effective. If so, it is expected to arrive at the first half of 7 Dec. A partial halo CME, also seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images, appeared yesterday at 10:36 UTC. This is estimated to be back-sided event and as such not geo- effective.

太陽風

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the arrival of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS) during the last 24 hours. The SW speed reached 580 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased from below 5 nT to 12 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT as a result of the HSS arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remained strongly affected by the said HSS during the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 3+ to 2 and K BEL 3 to 1) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to remain unsettled in the next 24 hours, possibly reaching active levels.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：112，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 03 Dec 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	109 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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