查看星期一, 18 12月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Dec 18 1255 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
18 Dec 2023	158	076
19 Dec 2023	159	060
20 Dec 2023	159	019

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 3520 which peaked at 20:17 UTC on Dec 17. During the flare, the source region (AR 3520) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

日冕洞

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is starting to cross the central meridian today.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of several ICMEs. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s to 560 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -14 and 12 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 4 nT to 17 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Dec 17 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions have reached moderate storm levels globally (Kp 6) and active condition levels locally (K_Bel 4) starting at 06 UT on Dec 18, due to the continuous impact of the several ICMEs that departed the Sun from Dec 14 and early Dec 15. We expect active to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions in the next 24 hours possibly due the arrival of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17.

質子通量水平

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal to moderate level. It is expected that this parameter will remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：136，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 17 Dec 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	028
估計地磁Ap指數	035
估計國際太陽黑子數	111 - 基於22個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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