查看星期六, 30 12月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Dec 30 1256 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
30 Dec 2023	142	005
31 Dec 2023	140	009
01 Jan 2024	140	030

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity remained at low levels. There are only five numbered active regions on the visible disc, most of them in the western hemisphere. The strongest activity was marked by a C3.2 flare, peak time 07:47 UTC on Dec 30th, produced by NOAA AR 3530 (beta). This region was responsible for all the notable flaring activity over the past 24 hour as it approaches the west limb. NOAA AR 3529 has now rotated behind the west limb and has been quiet. The remaining regions on disc have been mostly stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with probable C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.

日冕物質拋射

A large filament eruption is visible in the SDO/AIA images from UTC morning till UTC late afternoon on Dec 29th. Despite the big eruption, no related coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the available coronagraph imagery. Another filament eruption with clear on- disc signatures is observed in the south-east quadrant after 08:00 UTC on Dec 30th. Preliminary analysis suggested no foreseen impact on Earth, but further coronagraph data is awaited for further analysis of any potential Earth-directed component or the related CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

日冕洞

The large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole and now extended to high latitudes and the high latitude parts of it continue to reside on the central meridian. The high speed stream related to this coronal hole could arrive to Earth on Dec 31st or Jan 1st and is expected to last for several days.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained mildly disturbed by an ICME arrival, most probably related to the weak slow partial halo CME from Dec 25th. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 336 to 426 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 11.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.8 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours are expected to return to nominal solar wind conditions and be disturbed on Dec 31st, Jan 1st and Jan 2nd with an anticipated high speed stream arrival from a large negative polarity coronal hole.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with a few isolated unsettled periods resisted over Belgium. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods. Quiet to active conditions with likely minor storm levels and possible isolated moderate storms can be expected with the anticipated high speed stream arrival on Dec 31st and Jan 1st.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：070，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 29 Dec 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	087 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀