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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Jan 06 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
06 Jan 2024	136	008
07 Jan 2024	140	010
08 Jan 2024	144	016

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.2-flare, with peak time 04:50 UTC on January 05, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex region on disk. NOAA AR 3539 (beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant of the visible disk. NOAA AR 3540 (beta) and NOAA AR 3541 (beta) have rotated on the visible disk and have been producing C-class flares. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 02:00 UTC on January 05, shows a possible glancing blow on January 08.

日冕洞

A positive polarity coronal hole is continuing to pass the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth late on January 06 or on January 07.

太陽風

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, gently declined from around 420 km/s to around 335 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 4 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed due to the arrival of a high- speed stream associated with a positive polarity coronal hole.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet (Kp 2) and reached unsettled conditions locally (and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：148，基於04個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 05 Jan 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	169
10厘米太陽通量	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	119 - 基於12個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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