查看星期一, 29 1月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Jan 29 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
29 Jan 2024	141	011
30 Jan 2024	139	015
31 Jan 2024	140	016

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a long-duration M6.8 flare which peaked at 04:38 UTC January 29, produced by the NOAA AR 3559. This region also produced an M1.3 flare plus several C-class flares and remains a complex region (beta-gamma), although it is now approaching the north-west limb. NOAA AR 3560 produced low-level C-class flares and is also about to rotate over the west limb in the next days. The two remaining numbered regions on disk, NOAA ARs 3565 and 3563 are simple and were quiet. C-class flaring was also observed over the north-east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a slight chance for an X- class flare.

日冕物質拋射

A fast halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 04:24 UTC on January 29. The CME has an estimated projected velocity of around 950 km/s and is related to the M6.8-flare from NOAA AR 3559, with peak time 04:38 UTC. A Type II radio emission associated to this event was also detected at 04:07 UTC. A preliminary analysis suggests that the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss the Earth, however the shock could possibly arrive, likely on January 31. Further analysis is ongoing.

太陽風

The solar wind parameters were slightly elevated, possibly associated with a weak transient feature or the start of the expected high speed stream arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field was at 10nT at the start of the period and decreased to around 5nT by the end. Bz ranged between -6 and +8nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 380 and 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to become further enhanced on January 29 and 30, due to the influence of the high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal holes, which crossed the central meridian on January 27. Further enhancements may also be expected from January 31 due to a possible ICME glancing blow.

地磁

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (local K Bel and NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on January 29 and 30, due the expected weak influence of the high-speed stream and further active conditions may be possible on January 31 due to a possible ICME glancing blow.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux exceeded the 10pfu threshold, reaching a maximum value of 33.3 as measured by GOES-18 at 12:00 UTC. This proton event was associated with the long duration M6.8 flare and halo CME produced by the NOAA AR 3559. The proton flux is expected to continue to be above the threshold during the next 24 hours, before gradually decreasing.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：074，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 28 Jan 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	141
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	068 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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