查看星期四, 1 2月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Feb 01 1233 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
01 Feb 2024	140	007
02 Feb 2024	144	001
03 Feb 2024	146	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C3.1 flare with peak time 07:43 UTC February 01 originating near the central meridian in the northern hemisphere (N25E02). A new sunspot group, Catania sunspot group 57, started to emerge rapidly to the east of this location at the same time (N25E17). Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 3565) and Catania sunspot group 54 (NOAA 3567) showed growth and produced multiple C-class flares. A new region rotated onto disk in the south-east quadrant (Catania sunspot group 59, NOAA AR 3571). The remaining Catania sunspot groups 50, 51, 53 and new regions 55 and 58 (NOAA Active Regions 3566, 3569 3568, 3570 and 3572 respectively) were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, isolated M-class flares remain possible.

日冕物質拋射

The C3.1 flare located near the central meridian was also associated with an eruption that was first seen in LASCO-C2 data from 08:06 UTC February 01. This eruption was predominantly directed to the north-east but is likely to have an Earth directed component and analysis is ongoing.

日冕洞

A small positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere continues to cross the central meridian since January 31.

太陽風

The solar wind parameters were relatively stable for most of the period ,with solar wind speed values between 380 and 450 km/s and a magnetic field strength of around 3 nT. From 05:18 UTC a magnetic structure is visible with is a small jump in the magnetic field strength from 3nT to 7nT, which may be associated with the expected shock from the January 29 CME. After this time the magnetic field strength varied between 4 and 8nT and Bz had a minimum value of -6nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) with fluctuations during the passing of the magnetic structure. The magnetic field is expected to be slightly enhanced on February 01 while the solar wind speed is expected to decrease. On February 02 slow solar wind conditions are expected to dominate.

地磁

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (local K Bel 1-2 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next days.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next day.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：109，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 31 Jan 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	094 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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