查看星期五, 9 2月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Feb 09 1246 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
09 Feb 2024	184	003
10 Feb 2024	184	009
11 Feb 2024	184	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M3.9 flare, peak time 23:55 UTC on Feb 8th, produced by NOAA AR 3575 from behind the west limb. Multiple C-class flaring was also observed from behind the west limb, presumably from NOAA AR 3575 and NOAA AR 3564. The main driver for the solar activity observed on the visible disc was NOAA AR 3576 (beta- gamma-delta), which produced multiple low M-class flaring, including an impulsive M3.4 flare with peak time 13:12 UTC on Feb 8th. Isolated low levels of activity were produced by NOAA AR 3574, which decayed into magnetic configuration type alpha and NOAA AR 3573, which has rotated behind the west limb. Two new simple active regions were numbered, namely NOAA AR 3580 (alpha) near the north-west limb, and NOAA AR 3581 (alpha) near the south-east limb. One or two more returning regions are expected to rotated onto the solar disc from behind the east limb. NOAA AR 3579 (beta) has slightly increased its underlying magnetic complexity, but remained inactive. NOAA AR 3574 (alpha) showed mild decay. The remaining active regions have been mostly stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days with likely further M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3576.

日冕物質拋射

A filament eruption in the southern hemisphere to the west of NOAA AR 3576 produced a medium intensity coronal dimming visible in the SDO/AIA images around 21:00 UTC on Feb 8th. However currently no coronal mass ejection (CME) can be associated with this eruption. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) are returning to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity has followed a declining curve, decreasing from about 500 km/s to about 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, was weak with a maximum value of 5.7 nT and minimum Bz of -3.5 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be at nominal slow solar wind background levels on Feb 9th with minor chances for a rather weak glancing blow ICME arrival. Another low-impact glancing blow arrival related to the Feb 6th filament eruption might slightly enhance the solar wind conditions on Feb 10th and Feb 11th with only minor to no observed impact.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Feb 9th. Isolated active levels might be reached on Feb 10th related to possible glancing blow ICME arrivals and a possible shock arrival from the Feb 6th CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for Feb 11th.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of fast and strong eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3576.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：131，基於05個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 08 Feb 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	209
10厘米太陽通量	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	167 - 基於10個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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