查看星期二, 2 4月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Apr 02 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Apr 2024	125	007
03 Apr 2024	125	014
04 Apr 2024	125	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. Since the large Catania sunspot region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) has rotated over the west limb, the X-ray flux has decreased and is currently below the C level. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with possible C-class flares and a very low probability for an M-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

A negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to mid-latitudes has now fully crossed the central meridian and is currently on the geo-effective location. Another negative polarity equatorial coronal hole has began to cross the central meridian on April 01.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions remained slightly elevated due to the arrival of the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 27. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 407 km/s and 565 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 4.0 nT and 8.4 nT. The Bz component was mostly fluctuating and reached a minimum value of -5.4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to return to a slow solar wind speed regime for a very short period. It will be then followed by some enhancements due to the high-speed stream from the negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to mid-latitudes, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 31.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K Bel 2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled with possible active conditions on April 02 and April 03 associated to a high-speed stream from the negative polarity northern polar coronal which began to traverse the central meridian on March 31.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. There is still a small chance of an increase from flares associated with Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) that has rotated over the west limb.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：046，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Apr 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	031 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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