查看星期二, 23 4月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Apr 23 1241 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with multiple low M-class flares. There are 18 numbered and several unnumbered active regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3645 (beta-gamma) being the largest one, followed by NOAA AR 3647 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3639 (beta-gamma). The strongest activity was M3.6 flare, start time 03:06 UTC, end time 03:37 UTC, peak time 03:19 UTC on April 23rd produced by NOAA AR 3654 (beta). This region was responsible for another M3.0-flare, peak time 08:21 UTC on April 23rd and continuous to be actively flaring. Isolated low M-class flaring was produced by regions NOAA 3645 and NOAA 3638. Other regions which contributed to the flaring activity are NOAA AR 3649 (beta), NOAA AR 3656 (beta) and NOAA AR 3646 (beta). The remaining active regions are relatively simple simple (magnetic type alpha or beta) and did not show significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next days with likely further M-class flaring and increased chances for isolated X-class flaring.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. A small filament eruption was observed to the south of the central meridian starting around 1:40 UTC on April 23rd. A related chain of flaring activity was observed from regions NOAA 3654 (M3.4 flare, peak time 03:19 UTC on April 23rd) and region NOAA AR 3638 (C-class flaring, peaking at 01:22 UTC and 07:04 UTC on April 23rd) with an eastward and series of south-west CMEs detected by LASCO/C2 around 03:48 UTC and 07:36 UTC. Current analysis is ongoing to determine any potential Earth-directed components related to these eruptions.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 335 km/s to 456 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 3.36 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.06 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slow solar wind conditions in the next hours with possible mild elevations due to possible high speed stream arrival from a positive polarity coronal hole on April 25th - April 26th.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally in Belgium quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout April 23rd and 24th. Quiet to active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are anticipated for late April 25th-April 26th.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending any fast eruptive solar activity.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux as measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and might reach the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24h. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 briefly exceeded 1000 pfu threshold around 17 UTC and midnight UTC on April 22nd and is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threshold again in the late afternoon on April 23rd. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so.

太陽活動指數 22 Apr 2024

顯著活動摘要

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