Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X5 event observed at 11/0123Z from Region 3664 (S18W62). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar activity is expected to be high on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

The geomagnetic field has been at severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 993 km/s at 11/1433Z. Total IMF reached 73 nT at 10/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -50 nT at 11/0048Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu at 11/0910Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 11/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at severe storm levels on day one (12 May), active to severe storm levels on day two (13 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (14 May).

  觀測的       11 May 214
  預測的   12 May-14 May 220/220/215
  90天平均值        11 May 165

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 10 May  080/157
  估算值     Afr/Ap 11 May  268/317
  預測的    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  114/156-041/060-015/020