查看星期四, 23 5月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 May 23 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
23 May 2024	196	007
24 May 2024	194	011
25 May 2024	192	010

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. There were four M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (that evolved into beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M4.2 peaking at 02:16 UTC. NOAA AR 3683 rotated over the west limb, but is still producing significant flares (C9.8 at 07:01 UTC). NOAA AR 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) has also potential for strong flaring activity. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours.

日冕洞

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth (late) on 24 May.

太陽風

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：135，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 22 May 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	188
10厘米太陽通量	196
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	151 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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