查看星期一, 22 7月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Jul 22 1253 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
22 Jul 2024	205	010
23 Jul 2024	204	011
24 Jul 2024	200	008

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and six M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M3.9 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3762 which peaked at 04:04 UTC on Jul 22. During the flare, the source region (AR 3762) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Apart from NOAA AR 3762, NOAA AR 3757 (beta configuration) and NOAA AR 3744(beta configuration) also produced M-class flares. The NOAA AR 3751 has the most complex magnetic configuration (beta-gamma-delta), but it has only produced few C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view around 16:28 UTC on Jul 21. CME was associated with a M1.0 flare from NOAA AR 3757 (N15 E20) and an eruption of a very twisted filament with the main propagation direction towards North. The first estimation shows projected speed of the CME to be about 730 km/s which brings expected arrival time at Earth to be around 05:00 UTC on Jul 24. A M1.4 flare occurred with a peak time 09:35 UTC on Jul 22, produced by NOAA AR 3744. Associated Type II radio emissions were detected at 09:26 UTC on Jul 22, during the flaring activity. The associated CME will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO coronagraph images are availble. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

太陽風

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 280 km/s and 330 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed a small enhancement starting around 09:30 UTC on Jul 22, associated with flaring activities from NOAA AR 3744 and a type II radio burst (with a possibly associated coronal mass ejection). Any major eruption from the same active region, during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：188，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 21 Jul 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	198
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	218 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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