查看星期日, 28 7月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Jul 28 1246 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
28 Jul 2024	205	008
29 Jul 2024	206	008
30 Jul 2024	205	009

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and seven M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M9.9 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3766 which peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. During the flare, the source region (AR 3766) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3766 produced three M-class flares and NOAA AR 3762, which is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), produced four M-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares from NOAA AR 3766 or NOAA AR 3762.

日冕物質拋射

Further analysis of the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 05:00 UTC on Jul 27, has shown that this CME was possibly a backsided event. A halo CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 06:30 UTC on Jul 27. This CME was possibly associated with a M3.1 flare, which peaked at 05:46 UTC on Jul 27, produced by NOAA AR 3762 (S11 W25). Possibly associted type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:43 UTC on Jul 27. With a projected speed of about 450 km/s, it is expected to impact the Earth on 30-31 Jul. Another halo CME was first observed in the C2 images around 02:24 UTC on Jul 28. It was associated to the two subsequent M-class flares from the NOAA AR 3766 (S07 E10) and the EUV wave. The first M7.8 flare peaked at 01:51 UTC and the second M9.9 flare peaked at 01:57 UTC on Jul 28. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 01:51 UTC on Jul 28, during the flaring activities. With a projected speed of about 470 km/s and its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth later on the evening of July 31. A narrow CME, with an angular width of about 60 deg, first appeared in the C2 field of view around 05:50 UTC on Jul28. This CME was associated to a prominence eruption in the NE quadrant of the Sun. With the bulk of the mass going strongly NE, it is not expected to arrive at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

太陽風

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 375 km/s and 435 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 8 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：197，基於20個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 27 Jul 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	204
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	019
估計地磁Ap指數	013
估計國際太陽黑子數	210 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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