查看星期日, 4 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 04 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
04 Aug 2024	242	011
05 Aug 2024	240	006
06 Aug 2024	238	005

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with ten M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M7.3 flare peaking at 18:39 UTC on August 03, from NOAA AR 3775 (beta-gamma). There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex is NOAA AR 3772 (beta-gamma-delta). The clustered ARs 3763, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3770 and 3773 are currently rotating or have rotated behind the west limb, but may still exhibit flaring activity. NOAA AR 3778 is currently rotating on disk from the east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

Multiple filament and prominence eruptions were observed in AIA 304 data, but no associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The most important events were: a filament eruption around 12:15 UTC on August 03 in the south hemisphere, near the central meridian; a second filament eruption around 13:49 UTC on August 03 near NOAA AR 3777; a third filament eruption around 00:20 UTC on August 04, near NOAA AR 3775; a large prominence eruption around 04:42 UTC on August 04, in the southwest limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

A negative polarity coronal hole has emerged near the equator, southeast of the central meridian.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions were enhanced early on August 04 due to a suspected arrival of a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on July 31. Speed values reached a maximum of around 480 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field a maximum of 15 nT. The Bz component reached -15 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector, switching to negative around 09:00 UTC on August 04. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with some enhancements still possible due to the potential arrival of a second glancing blow from the CME observed at 18:48 UTC on July 31.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (Kp 5-) between 06:00-09:00 UTC on August 04, due to the suspected arrival of the glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on July 31. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 07:00-10:00 UTC on August 04. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to the potential arrival of a second glancing blow from the CME observed at 18:48 UTC on July 31.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：233，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 03 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	245
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	222 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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