查看星期五, 9 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 09 1240 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
09 Aug 2024	350	018
10 Aug 2024	360	028
11 Aug 2024	365	030

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the last 24 hours, with 1 X class flare and 4 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an X1.3 flare peaking at 19:35 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 19:29 UTC. NOAA AR 3774 and NOAA AR3780 are the other two largest and most complex regions on the disk. NOAA AR 3780 and 3781 also produced M-class flaring. The rest of the regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

An asymmetric halo CME mostly directed to the south-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:48 UTC August 08, associated with the X1.3 flare. Initial analysis suggests that this CME would have an Earth directed component and may impact earth late on August 11.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 6 nT with a minimum value of -6nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). There is a small chance of minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field on August 09 due to the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 5, and a possible weak shock from the partial halo CME of August 05. Stronger enhancements are possible from August 10, due to possible combined influence of the CMEs of August 07.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on August 09, with possible minor to moderate storm conditions on August 10 and 11 in response to possible CME arrivals.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase in the proton flux in the next days as there are several complex regions on disk, moving towards a location that would be geoeffective.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：259，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 08 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	336
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	299 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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