查看星期一, 12 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 12 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
12 Aug 2024	278	032
13 Aug 2024	276	030
14 Aug 2024	270	013

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a M1.63-flare, with peak time 05:48 UTC on August 11 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma). The second largest M-class flare is a M1.26-flare, with peak time 00:18 UTC on August 12 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma) are also larger and more complex than the other regions currently on disk. NOAA AR 3788 (beta) has rotated on disk. NOAA AR 3774 has started to rotate over the western limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were under the influence of an ICME, likely from a CME from August 07 and a CME from August 08, associated with a X1.3-flare. The solar wind speed varied within 463 – 534 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 8 nT and 23 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -20 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed, with possible ICME arrivals late on August 12 and early on August 13.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions have reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 7) and moderate storm levels locally (K BEL 6) since 03:00 UTC on August 12 in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and prolonged periods of soutward directed Bz component.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：236，基於23個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 11 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	282
AK Chambon La Forêt	072
AK Wingst	032
估計地磁Ap指數	034
估計國際太陽黑子數	244 - 基於28個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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