查看星期四, 29 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 29 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
29 Aug 2024	205	013
30 Aug 2024	205	024
31 Aug 2024	205	017

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels, with several C-class flares detected. The two largest flares were both C7.0 flares: the first peaked at 20:38 UTC on August 28 and was associated with NOAA AR 3801 (beta class), while the second peaked at 04:17 UTC on August 29, originating from an active region behind the east limb (S09E88) that is currently rotating onto the visible side of the disk. This region was responsible for most of the flaring activity observed during this period. NOAA AR 3796 (beta-gamma class), which is expected to rotate over the west limb in the next few hours, along with NOAA AR 3792 (alpha class), produced additional C-class flares. Although NOAA AR 3799 (beta-gamma class) and NOAA AR 3800 (beta-gamma class) are the largest and most complex regions on the disk, they remained quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely, M-class flares possible, and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing ICME influence. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged between 15 and 17 nT, with solar wind speeds fluctuating between 280 km/s and 340 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) reached a minimum of -9 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours, with a potential weak enhancement on August 29 - August 30 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1 - 3, K-Bel = 1 - 3) in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated active conditions due to possible HSS arrival.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：151，基於20個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 28 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	188
10厘米太陽通量	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	024
估計地磁Ap指數	026
估計國際太陽黑子數	179 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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