查看星期一, 16 9月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Sep 16 1256 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
16 Sep 2024	177	026
17 Sep 2024	176	055
18 Sep 2024	178	014

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with background high C-class flaring. The largest activity was C6.0-flare, with peak time 01:25 UTC on Sept 16th associated with NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma). This region together with NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma) are the largest and most complex regions on the visible solar disk and were responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. Additional low C-class flaring was produced from behind the south- east limb, possibly by a returning region rotating NOAA 3807. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 50% chances of M-class flares and small chances for isolated X-class flaring.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of continuous high speed stream regime. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 403 km/s to 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was mildly elevated, reaching a maximum of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.7 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated due to the ongoing high speed stream and register further highly disturbed conditions due to anticipated ICME arrival of the Sept 14th CME.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Usettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail until late UTC evening on Sept 16th. Probable minor and possibly major to severe storm levels are expected for late Sept 16th to early Sept 17 due to anticipated ICME arrival. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected later on Sept 17 and mostly quiet to active conditions are anticipated for Sept 18th.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at elevated levels due to an ongoing proton event, but remained below the 10 pfu radiation storm warning thresholds. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at elevated levels on Sept 16th and decrease towards nominal levels on Sept 17th pending no new strong eruptive activity from the Sun.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated on Sept 16th and decrease to nominal values later. The 24h electron fluence was reached moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and decrease back to nominal levels after.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：141，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 15 Sep 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	018
估計地磁Ap指數	019
估計國際太陽黑子數	095 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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