查看星期四, 24 10月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Oct 24 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
24 Oct 2024	187	017
25 Oct 2024	189	007
26 Oct 2024	191	037

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare and one X-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an X3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 2382) peaking on October 24 at 03:57 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Regions 3869). There are currently six numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Regions 3869; beta-gamma) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Region 3863; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 244 (NOAA Active Region 3866; beta). SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3859) is approaching the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a M-class flares possible.

日冕物質拋射

A fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data starting at around 03:48 UTC on October 24. The CME is directed primarily to the southeast from Earth's perspective and is associated with the X3.3 flare from NOAA AR 3869, along with Type II and Type IV radio emissions detected at 03:46 UTC on October 24. The CME has an estimated velocity exceeding 1300 km/s. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could potentially arrive on October 26. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind data from ACE and DSCOVR remained under the waning influence of the high-speed stream (HSS), but is gradually returning to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) decreased from 9 nT to 4 nT, while the solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 420 km/s. The southward component of the IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and 7 nT. The IMF phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to return to a slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours. On October 26-27, solar wind parameters may become slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the central meridian on October 22, along with the possible arrival of an ICME.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (K-BEL: 2 to 3), while globally, active levels were reached between 03:00 and 09:00 UTC on October 24 (NOAA Kp: 1 to 4+). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Unsettled conditions, with possible isolated active and minor storm periods, are expected on October 26-27 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream and the possible arrival of an ICME.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：140，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 23 Oct 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	159
10厘米太陽通量	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	009
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	119 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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