查看星期日, 27 10月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Oct 27 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
27 Oct 2024	237	017
28 Oct 2024	239	043
29 Oct 2024	241	024

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 2405), peaking at 14:16 UTC on October 26 from beyond the north-east limb (N16E88) from a region that is expected to rotate onto the disk in the coming days. There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872; beta-gamma-delta) is the most complex region on the disk, but it has only produced C-class flaring. SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (NOAA Active Region 3870) is approaching the west limb and remained quiet. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3873; beta-gamma). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours, Earth came under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME). A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 15:35 UTC on October 26, with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) jumping from 14 nT to 22 nT and the solar wind speed rising from 370 km/s to 440 km/s. This shock is likely associated with a halo coronal mass ejection observed early on October 24. Following the ICME’s arrival, the IMF reached values up to 26 nT, and the southward component of the IMF fluctuated between -18 nT and 19 nT. The IMF phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next day due to the ICME passage, possibly mixed with high-speed stream (HSS) influence, with further enhancement possible on October 28 due to the potential arrival of another ICME from October 26 and HSS from the negative polarity coronal hole.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 4, K-BEL: 4) between 18:00 and 00:00 UTC on October 26 due to the ICME arrival. Unsettled conditions, with possible isolated active periods, are expected for the remainder of October 27. Active conditions, with possible isolated minor to major storm periods, are possible on October 28 due to the expected arrival of another ICME and possible HSS arrival.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 19:10 UTC on October 26 and 100 pfu threshold today, October 27, at 09:15 UTC. The proton flux had been gradually increasing since 04:15 UTC on October 24. Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), first detected by LASCO C2 at 03:48 UTC on October 24 and 06:48 UTC on October 26, along with strong flaring activity from NOAA AR 3869 and 3873, are likely associated with this particle event. The proton flux is currently above the threshold level and is expected to continue increasing over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：254，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 26 Oct 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	238
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	014
估計國際太陽黑子數	228 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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