查看星期三, 6 11月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Nov 06 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
06 Nov 2024	249	008
07 Nov 2024	247	011
08 Nov 2024	243	017

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 7 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M5.86 flare peaking on November 06 at 08:50 UTC, which was produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3887. A newly emerged active region in the north-west quadrant of the Sun. The second largest flare was a M4.19 flare peaking on November 05 at 15:26 UTC, which was associated with an AR just over the west limb. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) is the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region 3887 and 3888 have emerged on disk in the northwest quadrant of the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 306 (NOAA Active Region 3885) is about to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 17:24 UTC on November 04 shows that no impact from this CME is expected at Earth.

日冕洞

A negative polarity high-latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth around November 09.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 420 and 489 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to the slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to unsettled (Kp 1-3 and K BEL 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：196，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 05 Nov 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	245
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	013
估計國際太陽黑子數	214 - 基於13個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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