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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Nov 09 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
09 Nov 2024	235	013
10 Nov 2024	231	014
11 Nov 2024	227	011

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2561) peaking on November 09 at 00:08 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3859, 3889). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) and SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) are the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) has started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) has been detected in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 15:36 UTC on November 08. Analysis of the CME is ongoing.

日冕洞

A negative polarity high-latitude coronal hole continues to transition the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. A positive polarity low latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian. A high-speed stream associated with this coronal hole is expected to impact the earth on November 12.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the influence of an ICME and possible influence of a high-speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field B, reached a maximum value of 17 nT with a minimum Bz of -13 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 344 km/s to around 447 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) until switching over to the positive sector around 08:36 UTC on November 09. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions locally and globally (K BEL 4 and Kp 4). Minor storm geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：177，基於03個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 08 Nov 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	231
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	012
估計國際太陽黑子數	201 - 基於11個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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