查看星期一, 18 11月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Nov 18 1246 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
18 Nov 2024	156	015
19 Nov 2024	160	011
20 Nov 2024	170	010

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M2.5 flare peaking on November 18 at 10:58 UTC from an as yet unnumbered region rotating over the south-east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) the other largest region on disk also produced C-class flaring activity but is now approaching the east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

日冕洞

SIDC Coronal Hole 79 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) has begun to cross the central meridian on November 18.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly elevated, ranging between 5 and 9nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 310 and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream arrival associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 78, although this is low confidence.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with isolated active conditions possible due to any high- speed stream influence.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to be below this threshold over the 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 crossed the 1000 pfu threshold briefly and is expected to again be at or near this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：110，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 17 Nov 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	085 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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