查看星期二, 10 12月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Dec 10 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
10 Dec 2024	174	008
11 Dec 2024	176	014
12 Dec 2024	178	010

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with three M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M6.4 flare peaking at 06:48UTC on December 10, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 335 (NOAA Active Region 3922, magnetic type currently undetermined). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917) and SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912), both of magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912) is currently rotating behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 334 (NOAA Active Region 3921, magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the southeast quadrant, west of SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917). SIDC Sunspot Group 335 (NOAA active region 3922) has rotated on disk in the southeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable and a small chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 imagery, lifting off the southeast limb around 07:05 UTC on December 10. The CME is most likely associated with the M6.4 flare that peaked at 06:48UTC on December 10 from SIDC Sunspot Group 335 (NOAA Active Region 3922). Due to the location of its source region, no impact on Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

The positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, SIDC Coronal Hole 82, has now crossed the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may still arrive at Earth starting from December 11.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVER) were initially enhanced over the last 24 hours, most likely under the influence of the high-speed stream from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 82). The solar wind conditions are now gradually returning to the slow solar wind regime. Speed values have decreased from around 540 km/s to 415 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 10 nT to 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT to 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with further enhancements still possible in case of a high-speed stream arrival starting from December 11.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached active levels (NOAA Kp 4) between 21:00 UTC on December 09 and 00:00 UTC on December 10 and have now decreased to quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 17:00 UTC and 19:00 UTC on December 10 and have now decreased to quiet levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet conditions, with a small chance of active intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：136，基於03個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 09 Dec 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	194
10厘米太陽通量	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	021
估計地磁Ap指數	020
估計國際太陽黑子數	114 - 基於09個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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