查看星期二, 17 12月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Dec 17 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
17 Dec 2024	167	032
18 Dec 2024	167	007
19 Dec 2024	167	026

太陽活動區和耀斑

A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924) currently located at S19W42 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest one was an C4.5 flare peaking at 01:30 UTC, coming from an AR behind the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

太陽風

A shock was observed in the solar wind at 4:40 UT (in DSCOVR data), the speed jumped from 400 to 500 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field from 7 to 20 nT. The shock was driven by an ICME, corresponding to the expected arrival of the CME from 14 December. The solar wind speed reached 680 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field reached 32 nT, with Bz going down to -16 nT (it is now positive). More disturbed conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

地磁

Due to the shock and ICME arrival, Kp reached 5 (minor storm) and K_Bel 4 (active), more disturbed geomagnetic conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours (in particular if Bz turns negative).

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：087，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 16 Dec 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	013
估計地磁Ap指數	014
估計國際太陽黑子數	103 - 基於09個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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