查看星期五, 20 12月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Dec 20 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
20 Dec 2024	179	007
21 Dec 2024	181	007
22 Dec 2024	193	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. There have been four M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest one was an M3.8 flare peaking at 15:34 UTC on 19 December, coming from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3928, beta magnetic field configuration). The other M-class flares came from the same AR and one from SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924, beta gamma magnetic field configuration), which is rotating out of view over the west limb. More M-class flares can be expected and X-flares are possible in the next 24 hours.

日冕物質拋射

A full halo CME was observed at 18:16 UTC on 19 December by LASCO C3 (after a data gap of several hours). The source of this CME is believed to be backsided and will thus not arrive to the Earth.

太陽風

The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 460 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). Similar conditions are expected to persist in the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today, but it has probably missed the Earth.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today and create disturbed conditions, but it has probably missed the Earth.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：152，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 19 Dec 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	117
10厘米太陽通量	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
估計地磁Ap指數	012
估計國際太陽黑子數	121 - 基於09個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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