查看星期二, 21 1月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Jan 21 1300 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Jan 2025	231	011
22 Jan 2025	232	010
23 Jan 2025	233	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and a M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M3.4 flare peaking on Jan 21 at 10:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 347 (NOAA Active Region 3967). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 347) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 378 (NOAA Active Regions 3961 and 3964) are the complex regions with their beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed on SOHO/LASCO coronograph images starting around 03:48 UTC on Jan 21, with the main propagation direction towards North. It has a projected width of about 114 deg and a projected speed of about 870 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). Further analysis is ongoing to estimate the potential Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

太陽風

Earth still continues to be under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. The solar wind speed ranged from 460 km/s to 710 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 nT and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 nT and 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 4 and K_BEL 1 to 4), due to the continued impact of high speed streams from the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. We expect quiet to active conditions (K 2 to 4) in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was almost below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours, except for a short interval around 13:30 UTC on Jan 20, during which it was slightly above the threshold level. It is expected to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours but slight increase above the threshold level cannot be excluded. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 17:30 UTC and dropped below the threshold level at 22:50 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to be at normal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：158，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Jan 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	230
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	022
估計地磁Ap指數	020
估計國際太陽黑子數	192 - 基於11個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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