查看星期日, 26 1月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Jan 26 1300 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
26 Jan 2025	190	027
27 Jan 2025	189	010
28 Jan 2025	189	011

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C5.4 flare peaking at 17:27 UTC on Jan 25, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 383 (NOAA AR 3961 and 3971) are the complex regions with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 17:48 on Jan 25. This CME was associated with a C5.4 flare that peaked at 17:27 UTC on Jan 25, originated from the SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961, S11 W78). It has a projected width of about 110 deg and a projected speed of about 800 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool). It is not very probable that it will arrive to Earth. Another narrow CME was first observed in LASCO-C2 images starting around 01:25 UTC on Jan 26, which was associated with a filament eruption in the SE quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected width of about 60 deg and a projected speed of about 900 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool). With the bulk of the mass going strongly southward from the Sun-Earth line, this CME is also not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

太陽風

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 300 km/s to 440 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 3 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours unless the coronal mass ejections that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22 arrives late.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 1 and K_BEL 1 to 2) both globally and locally. In the next 24 hours, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions (K 1 to 3), unless the coronal mass ejections that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22 arrives late and enhances the geomagnetic conditions to active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6).

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961).

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. However, greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was slightly above the threshold level from 17:20 UTC to 22:40 UTC on Jan 25. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：108，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 25 Jan 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
估計地磁Ap指數	002
估計國際太陽黑子數	114 - 基於13個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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